Why were prices rising in May 2021?

As of May 2021, the Basket Index for a US family of 4 sits at 104.8 — meaning the cost of a standard household basket has risen 6.9% versus a year ago and is up 0.78% from the previous month.

Most of the move comes from gasoline (regular unleaded), electricity (residential), rent of primary residence and milk (whole, fortified). Together these items account for roughly 87% of the year-over-year basket cost change.

Offsetting the increases: ground beef (100% beef) (-8.1%), chicken (whole, fresh) (-5.4%), eggs (grade a, large) (-0.9%) are cheaper than a year ago.

Inflation is rarely caused by one thing. Energy prices feed into food production and shipping; rent moves with housing supply and interest rates; and grocery prices respond to supply shocks, weather, and demand patterns. Basket Index does not claim causality — it tracks the prices households actually face, and lets you see which categories are pulling the basket up.

• Gasoline (Regular Unleaded): +59.7% YoY, ~76% of basket move.
• Electricity (Residential): +4.5% YoY, ~5% of basket move.
• Rent of Primary Residence: +1.8% YoY, ~5% of basket move.